Kwi-2022, phantsi kwemvelaphi yenjongo "yekhabhoni ezimbini", ihlabathi likwinqanaba elibalulekileyo lokuguqulwa kwesakhiwo samandla.Ingxabano enkulu phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine iyaqhubeka nokukhokelela kumaxabiso aphezulu e-fossil energy.Amazwe ahlawula ingqalelo ngakumbi kumandla avuselelekayo, kwaye imarike ye-photovoltaic iyanda.Eli nqaku liza kwazisa imeko yangoku kunye nethemba lemarike ye-photovoltaic yehlabathi ukusuka kwiinkalo ezine: okokuqala, ukuphuhliswa kwemboni ye-photovoltaic kwihlabathi kunye namazwe / imimandla ebalulekileyo;okwesibini, ukurhweba ngaphandle kweemveliso ze-photovoltaic industry chain;okwesithathu, i-forecast ye-trend yophuhliso loshishino lwe-photovoltaic kwi-2023;Olwesine luhlalutyo lwemeko yophuhliso lwemboni ye-photovoltaic kwixesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide.
Imeko yophuhliso
I-1.Imboni ye-photovoltaic yehlabathi inamandla ophuhliso oluphezulu, ixhasa imfuno yeemveliso kwi-photovoltaic industry chain ukuze ihlale iphakamileyo.
2. Iimveliso ze-photovoltaic zaseChina zineenzuzo zokuxhamla kwi-industrial chain chain, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwazo ngaphandle kukukhuphisana kakhulu.
3. Izixhobo eziphambili ze-Photovoltaic ziphuhliswa kwindlela yokusebenza okuphezulu, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla aphantsi, kunye neendleko eziphantsi.Ukuguqulwa kokusebenza kweebhetri yinto ephambili yezobugcisa ukuphula i-bottleneck ye-photovoltaic industry.
4. Kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo umngcipheko wokhuphiswano lwamazwe ngamazwe.Ngelixa imarike yesicelo se-photovoltaic yehlabathi igcina imfuno eqinile, ukhuphiswano lwamazwe ngamazwe kwishishini lokuvelisa i-photovoltaic luyanda.
Ukuphuhliswa kwemboni ye-photovoltaic kwihlabathi kunye namazwe aphambili / imimandla
Ukusuka kumbono wesiphelo sokwenziwa kwekhonkco leshishini le-photovoltaic, kunyaka wonke we-2022, eqhutywa yimfuno yemarike yesicelo, umlinganiselo wemveliso yesiphelo sokwenziwa kwetsheyini lemboniselo ye-photovoltaic yehlabathi liya kuqhubeka nokwandisa.Ngokwedatha yamva nje ekhutshwe yi-China Photovoltaic Industry Association ngoFebruwari 2023, umthamo ofakwe kwihlabathi jikelele we-photovoltaics kulindeleke ukuba ube ngama-230 GW ngo-2022, ukonyuka konyaka-ngonyaka wama-35.3%, okuya kuqhuba ukwandiswa ngakumbi kwemveliso. umthamo wekhonkco loshishino lwe-photovoltaic.Kunyaka wonke we-2022, i-China iya kuvelisa i-806,000 yeetoni ze-photovoltaic polysilicon, ukwanda kwe-59% ngonyaka.Ngokutsho koshishino lokubala komlinganiselo wokuguqulwa phakathi kwepolysilicon kunye neemodyuli, i-polysilicon ekhoyo yaseChina ehambelana nokuveliswa kwemodyuli iya kuba malunga ne-332.5 GW kwi-2022, ukunyuka ukusuka kwi-2021. 82.9%.
Ukuqikelelwa kwendlela yophuhliso loshishino lwefotovoltaic ngo-2023
Umkhwa wokuvula phezulu kwaye uye phezulu uqhubekile unyaka wonke.Nangona ikota yokuqala iqhele ukuba lixesha elingekhoyo lofakelo eYurophu nase China, kutsha nje, amandla amatsha emveliso yepolysilicon iye yakhutshwa ngokuqhubekayo, okubangele ukuhla kwexabiso kwityathanga lemizi-mveliso, ngokufanelekileyo ukunciphisa uxinzelelo lweendleko ezisezantsi, nokukhuthaza ukukhululwa umthamo ofakiweyo.Ngexesha elifanayo, imfuno ye-PV yaphesheya kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke nomkhwa we "off-season" ngoJanuwari ukususela ngoFebruwari ukuya kuMatshi.Ngokwengxelo yeenkampani zeemodyuli zentloko, umkhwa wokuveliswa kwemodyuli emva koMthendeleko waseNtwasahlobo ucacile, ngokunyuka kwenyanga-ngenyanga ye-10% -20% ngoFebruwari, kunye nokunyuka okungaphezulu ngoMatshi.Ukuqala kwikota yesibini neyesithathu, njengoko amaxabiso okubonelela aqhubeka ehla, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno iya kuqhubeka nokunyuka, kwaye kude kube sekupheleni konyaka, kuya kubakho enye i-grid enkulu yokudibanisa i-tide, eqhuba umthamo ofakiweyo ikota yesine ukufikelela incopho yonyaka.Ukhuphiswano lwemizi-mveliso luya luqina ngakumbi nangakumbi.Kwi-2023, ukungenelela okanye impembelelo ye-geopolitics, imidlalo yelizwe elikhulu, utshintsho lwemozulu kunye nezinye izinto kulo lonke i-industrial chain kunye ne-supply chain iya kuqhubeka, kwaye ukhuphiswano kwimboni ye-photovoltaic yamazwe ngamazwe iya kuba nzima ngakumbi.Ukusuka kumbono wemveliso, amashishini anyusa uphando kunye nophuhliso lweemveliso ezisebenzayo, eyona nto iphambili yokuphucula ukukhuphisana kwehlabathi kwiimveliso ze-photovoltaic;Ukusuka kwimbono yoyilo lwemizi-mveliso, umkhwa wekhonkco lonikezelo lwemveliso ye-photovoltaic yexesha elizayo ukusuka kwindawo esembindini ukuya kwi-decentralized kwaye yahluka-hlukeneyo iya icaca ngakumbi nangakumbi, kwaye kuyafuneka ukuba ngokwenzululwazi nangengqiqo uyilo lwamatyathanga amashishini aphesheya kweelwandle kunye neemarike zaphesheya ngokweempawu ezahlukeneyo zentengiso iimeko zomgaqo-nkqubo, eziyindlela eyimfuneko kumashishini ukunyusa ukhuphiswano lwehlabathi kunye nokunciphisa umngcipheko wemarike.
Imeko yophuhliso loshishino lwe-photovoltaic kwixesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide
Imboni ye-photovoltaic yehlabathi inamandla ophuhliso oluphezulu, ixhasa imfuno yeemveliso ze-photovoltaic chain chain ukuze zihlale ziphezulu.Ukususela kumbono wehlabathi jikelele, ukuguqulwa kwesakhiwo samandla kwi-diversification, ecocekileyo kunye nekhabhoni ephantsi yinto engenakukwazi ukuguqulwa, kwaye oorhulumente bakhuthaza ngokunyanisekileyo amashishini ukuba aphuhlise imboni ye-solar photovoltaic.Kumxholo wenguqu yamandla, kunye nezinto ezithandekayo zokuhla kweendleko zokuvelisa amandla e-photovoltaic eziziswa yinkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe, kwixesha eliphakathi, imfuno yomthamo we-photovoltaic efakwe phesheya iya kuqhubeka nokugcina ukuchuma okuphezulu.Ngokutsho kwe-forecast ye-China Photovoltaic Industry Association, i-photovoltaic entsha ye-photovoltaic efakwe amandla efakwe kwi-280-330 GW ngo-2023 kunye ne-324-386 GW ngo-2025, ixhasa imfuno yeemveliso ze-photovoltaic chain chain ukuze zihlale ziphezulu.Emva kwe-2025, ngokuqwalasela izinto zokusetyenziswa kweemarike kunye nokubonelela kunye nokuhambelana nemfuno, kunokubakho ukugqithisa okuthile kweemveliso ze-photovoltaic zehlabathi.Imboni ye-photovoltaic yaseTshayina ineengenelo ze-photovoltaic ezipheleleyo zehlabathi zokubonelela ngekhonkco, inkxaso epheleleyo yoshishino, isiphumo sonxibelelwano esinyukayo nesisezantsi, amandla kunye neenzuzo zemveliso zicacile, ezisisiseko sokuxhasa ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso kumazwe angaphandle.Ngelo xesha, imboni ye-photovoltaic yaseChina iyaqhubeka nokuvuselela kwaye ikhokela ihlabathi kwiinzuzo zobuchwepheshe, ibeka isiseko sokuthatha amathuba emarike yamazwe ngamazwe.Ukongeza, itekhnoloji yedijithali kunye nobuchwephesha obukrelekrele bukhawulezise inguqu yedijithali kunye nokuphuculwa kweshishini lemveliso kunye nokuphucula kakhulu ukusebenza kakuhle kwemveliso.Izixhobo ezingundoqo zePhotovoltaic ziphuhla ngendlela yokusebenza okuphezulu, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla aphantsi kunye neendleko eziphantsi, kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kokuguqulwa kweeseli eyona nto iphambili yobugcisa kwishishini le-photovoltaic ukugqobhoza kwi-bottleneck.Ngaphantsi kwesiseko sokulinganisa iindleko kunye nokusebenza kakuhle, nje ukuba iteknoloji yebhetri enokuguqulwa okuphezulu kokusebenza iphumele kwimveliso yobuninzi, iya kungena ngokukhawuleza kwimarike kwaye isuse umthamo ophantsi wemveliso.Ikhonkco lemveliso kunye nekhonkco lonikezelo phakathi komsinga onyukayo kunye nosezantsi kwetsheyini yoshishino nazo ziya kwakhiwa kwakhona.Okwangoku, iiseli ze-silicon zekristale zisebuchwephesha obuphambili kwishishini le-photovoltaic, elikwabandakanya ukusetyenziswa okuphezulu kwe-silicon yemathiriyeli ekrwada, kwaye ithathwa njengesizukulwana sesithathu sebhetri yefilim ecwengileyo emele i-perovskite yeebhetri zefilimu. kugcino lwamandla, ukukhuselwa kwendalo, usetyenziso loyilo, ukusetyenziswa kwezinto ezikrwada kunye neminye imiba ineengenelo ezibalulekileyo, itekhnoloji isekwinqanaba lelebhu, nje ukuba impumelelo yetekhnoloji iphunyeziwe, ukutshintshwa kweeseli ze-silicon zekristale kuba yitekhnoloji eqhelekileyo, umqobo we-bottleneck. yemathiriyeli ekrwada enyukayo kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso iya kwaphulwa. Ingqalelo kufuneka ihlawulwe kwiingozi zokhuphiswano lwamazwe ngamazwe.Ngelixa ugcina imfuno eqinile kwimarike yesicelo se-photovoltaic yehlabathi, ukhuphiswano lwamazwe ngamazwe kwishishini lokuvelisa i-photovoltaic luqinisa.Amanye amazwe acwangcisa ngenkuthalo ukwakhiwa kwendawo yokuvelisa kunye nokuveliswa kunye nokunikezelwa kwendawo kwishishini le-photovoltaic, kwaye ukuphuhliswa kokuveliswa kwamandla amatsha kuye kwaphakanyiswa kwinqanaba likarhulumente, kwaye kukho iinjongo, amanyathelo kunye namanyathelo.Ngokomzekelo, uMthetho we-Inflation we-2022 wase-US uceba ukutyala i-30 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwiikhredithi zerhafu yemveliso ukukhuthaza ukusetyenzwa kweepaneli zelanga kunye neemveliso eziphambili e-United States;I-EU iceba ukufezekisa injongo ye-100 GW ye-PV epheleleyo ye-industry chain nge-2030;I-Indiya ibhengeze iSicwangciso seSizwe seeModyuli ze-Solar PV eziSebenzayo, ezijolise ekunyuseni imveliso yasekhaya kunye nokunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwamanye amazwe kumandla avuselelweyo.Ngexesha elifanayo amanye amazwe aqalise amanyathelo okuthintela ukungeniswa kweemveliso ze-photovoltaic zaseChina ngaphandle kweminqweno yazo, enempembelelo ethile kwimveliso ye-photovoltaic yaseChina.
ukusuka: amashishini aseTshayina adibanisa amandla amatsha.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-12-2023